There has been a rush of last minute polling before Dutch voters elect a new Tweede Kamer tomorrow. The closing picture presented by the country’s six pollsters is broadly consistent, even if many parties are so bunched together that gaps between them are well within margins of error.
The ruling centre-right VVD of Prime Minister Mark Rutte appears set to be the largest party, leading clearly in five of the six surveys and being tied for first in one. The right-wing populists of Geert Wilders’ PVV are battling for second place, being tied in one poll and standing second in three. Strong late challenges from the Christian Democrat CDA, the Democraten 66, and GroenLinks (GL) may yet deprive them of that.
The once-mighty Labour Party (PvdA) seems destined for obscurity, polling behind the Socialists (SP). The brief flurry of interest in the 50Plus pensioners’ movement has declined sharply.
How much have the dramatic events of last weekend and the furious row between the Netherlands and Turkey impacted on voting intentions? It is hard to assess, with the diplomatic and media storm still developing while surveys were being carried out. However, the final data below are listed in order of fieldwork dates, and it is striking how the two latest polls show the best outcomes for the VVD, as voters appear to back the hard line taken by Rutte in expelling Turkish ministers from the country.
One poll stands out, which is the final effort from I & O Research. It places the PVV down in an unprecedented fifth place, a plunge of four seats over research completed just a few days earlier, while the VVD moves up three.
In their published commentaries, nearly all the pollsters consider likely voter turnout and assess differential certainly to vote among party supporters. It is clear from multiple data sources that a last-minute switch of allegiance is possible for large swathes of Dutch electors. That may be the key to where parties finish in this highly fragmented and very closely-fought contest.
Tweede Kamer, final seat projections (total seats 150)
I & O RESEARCH
VVD 27, D66 20, GL 20, CDA 19, PVV 16, SP 14, PvdA 12, CU 6, PvdD 5, 50Plus 4, Others 7
Participants: 2248. Fieldwork: 13.03-14.03.2017. Published: 14.03.2017.
IPSOS POLITIEKE BAROMETER
VVD 29, CDA 23, PVV 20, D66 18, GL 15, SP 15 PvdA 9 50Plus 5 CU 5 PvdD 4 Others 7
Participants: 1163. Fieldwork: 13.03-14.03.2017. Published: 14.03.2017.
KANTAR PUBLIC (TNS-NIPO)
VVD 27, PVV 23, CDA 20, D66 18, SP 15, GL 14, PvdA 11, 50Plus 6 ,CU 6, PvdD 4, Others 6
Participants: 2141. Fieldwork: 12.03-14.03.2017. Published: 14.03.2017.
PEIL/MAURICE DE HOND
VVD 27, PVV 24, CDA 22, GL 18, D66 15, SP 13, PvdA 9, CU 5, 50Plus 4, PvdD 4, Others 9
Participants & fieldwork: not stated. Published: 14.03.2017.
EEN VANDAAG / GfK
VVD 24, PVV 24, CDA 21, D66 16, GL 16, SP 16, PvdA 10, CU 7, 50Plus 5, PvdD 5, Others 6
Participants: 5945. Fieldwork: 11.03-13.03.2017. Published: 13.03.2017.
VVD 24, PVV 21, D66 18, GL 18, SP 17, CDA 16, PvdA 11, 50Plus 6, CU 5, PvdD 5, Others 9
Participants: 3483. Fieldwork: 08.03-14.03.2017. Published: 14.03.2017.
Photograph: Fountain at the Binnenhof, Den Haag, Netherlands. Photo: Andrew Cornwell. All rights reserved.
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