French government turns the corner with Elabe

Today’s monthly political ratings survey from Elabe brings good news for both President Macron and PM Philippe as their approval ratings move up after having fallen over a politically difficult summer. In answer to Elabe’s question ‘do you have confidence or not that the President can tackle the problems facing the country?’ some 40 per cent answered positively, up three points from early September. A similar improvement was registered by the Prime Minister.

 

 

This is the second survey in less than a week to show better numbers for France’s leadership duo, after Ifop’s monthly poll last Wednesday (more details here).

Macron’s support remains very firm among backers of his En Marche! movement as well as in the political centre represented by MoDem. He has slightly better net approval among Socialist Party voters than among Republican supporters – in contrast to Ifop’s earlier findings which were the reverse. Front National and France Insoumise voters are both deeply hostile to the administration.

Sociologically, Elabe finds that Macron’s best approval numbers come from professionals and managers, pensioners and those living in the Paris conurbation. His weakest spot is among ‘workers’, who award him a net negative of -43, perhaps fuelled by media and opposition narratives that have labelled him a ‘President of the rich’. There is significant divide between male respondents (-6) and females (-23). All of these trends are mirrored to a greater or lesser degree in Philippe’s breakdown.

 

Knowns and unknowns

Among other personalities, Elabe’s respondents continue to rank Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot top of the table, with 47 per cent having a very positive or mainly positive image of the former journalist and campaigner. Republican Mayor of Bordeaux Alain Juppé is second (42) and Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian third (34). It is striking that after several months in office no fewer than six out of ten ministers in the survey receive over 50 per cent ‘no opinion’ scores, suggesting they are still little known to the wider public.

 

 

ELABE L’Oberservatoire Politique, October
(per cent approval, change on September in brackets)

Emmanuel Macron (President)

Total approve 40 (+3)
Total disapprove 54 (-4)
No opinion 6 (+1)
Net approval rating -14 (was -21)

Net approval by party preference

La République en Marche! (LREM) +92
Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) +46
Parti Socialiste (PS) -2
Les Républicains (LR) -17
no party preference -23
‘Non socialist Left’ –57
Front National (FN) -82

 

Edouard Philippe (Prime Minister)

Total approve 36 (+4)
Total disapprove 50 (-7)
No opinion 14 (+3)
Net approval rating -14 (was -25)

Net approval by party preference

La République en Marche! (LREM) +80
Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) +60
Parti Socialiste (PS) -12
Les Républicains (LR) -15
no party preference -26
‘Non socialist Left’ -47
Front National (FN) -73

 

Fieldwork: 03.10-04.10.2017. Published: 08.10.2017. Participants: 1001. Methodology: Online poll. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique. Full report on the Elabe website here.

 

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