Macron support steady as French reform process takes hold

France’s two main monthly opinion ratings surveys were released today, and they will be re-assuring for both President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. Despite much controversy surrounding the En Marche! government’s labour, education, taxation, budgetary and policing reforms, there is only the smallest downward movement in French voters’ approval of the two men’s actions. Street protests and strikes have failed to gain momentum or to deflect the administration from its legislative programme – and there appears to be equally little damage to their popularity ratings.

 

 

Six months into his Presidency, Macron slides a couple of points on total approval with Elabe but is unchanged with Ifop-Fiducial (chart above). In both cases his net standing is in modestly negative territory. Philippe is down just one point in net approval with Elabe and two with Ifop, although there is quite a contrast between these agencies in his overall standing, which is net negative with the former and a small net positive with the latter. Interestingly the numbers holding ‘no opinion’ of the Prime Minister have fallen from 14 to 9 per cent with Elabe, perhaps showing that the former Le Havre Mayor’s attempts to make himself better known on the national stage in a series of media appearences may be bearing fruit. It is also worth noting that his total approval rating with Elabe is now level with Macron (see chart below).

 

 

There are some interesting nuances in approval ratings when cross-tabbed by party support (although some of the sub-samples may be small and should be treated with caution). With Elabe, Macron has gained ground among Republican (LR) voters, but lost it with MoDem (centrist) and Socialist (PS) party backers. Ifop shows the opposite picture. In both surveys the President is losing support among those without a firm party preference.

 

Opposition flounders

The difficulties of the French left in opposing Macron’s labour liberalisation and tax and expenditure cuts are reflected in Ifop’s regular question about who forms the strongest opposition in France. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise movement is still placed in top position, by 39 per cent of respondents, but this is down by seven points from October. The centre-right Republicans (24 per cent) and the Front National (20 per cent) are unchanged. The Socialists rise two points, but are still only on 9 per cent. Perhaps a sign of the lack of opposition coherence is that 8 per cent of voters have no answer to give, up from just 3 per cent last month.

 

Collomb falls

In Elabe’s monthly personality table covering all but the President and PM, also released today, Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot continues to sit at the top, with a positive image among 48 per cent of the French. He is followed by Mayor of Bordeaux Alain Juppé (42), Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (32) and Mélenchon (31). Interior Minister Gérard Collomb suffers a sharp fall from 5th to 11th in the ranking, losing five approval points. Laurent Wauquiez, favourite to become new leader of Les Républicains, has work ahead of him with just 18 per cent positive approval, 52 per cent viewing him negatively and 30 per cent with no opinion.

 

ELABE L’Oberservatoire Politique, November
(per cent approval, change on October in brackets)

Emmanuel Macron (President)

Total approve 38 (-2)
Total disapprove 56 (+2)
No opinion 6 (nc)
Net approval rating -18 (was -14)

Net approval by party preference
La République en Marche! (LREM) +93 (+1)
Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) +30 (-16)
Les Républicains (LR) +8 (+25)
Parti Socialiste (PS) -19 (-17)
no party preference -37 (-12)
‘Non socialist Left’ -46 (+11)
Front National (FN) -74 (+8)

 

Edouard Philippe (Prime Minister)

Total approve 38 (+2)
Total disapprove 53 (+3)
No opinion 9 (-5)
Net approval rating -15 (was -14)

Net approval by party preference
La République en Marche! (LREM) +87 (+7)
Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) +72 (+12)
Les Républicains (LR) +3 (+18)
Parti Socialiste (PS) -13 (-1)
no party preference -34 (-8)
‘Non socialist Left’ -47 (nc)
Front National (FN) -71 (+2)

 

Fieldwork: 30.10-31.10.2017. Published: 02.11.2017. Participants: 1152. Methodology: Online poll. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique. Full report on the Elabe website here.

 

IFOP Tableau de Bord Politique, November
(per cent approval, change on October in brackets)

Emmanuel Macron (President)

Total approve 44 (nc)
Total disapprove 55 (nc)
No opinion 1 (nc)
Net approval rating -11 (was -11)

Net approval by party preference
La République en Marche! (LREM) +78 (-6)
Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) +58 (+14)
Union des Démocrates et Indépendants (UDI) +4 (-14)
Les Républicains (LR) -11 (-9)
Parti Socialiste (PS) -3 (+9)
Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV) -22 (+26)
no party preference -43 (-17)
La France Insoumise (FI) -58 (+7)
Front National (FN) -60 (+5)

 

Edouard Philippe (Prime Minister)

Total approve 50 (-2)
Total disapprove 46 (nc)
No opinion 4 (+2)
Net approval rating +4 (was +6)

Net approval by party preference
La République en Marche! (LREM) +75 (-6)
Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) +54 (+18)
Union des Démocrates et Indépendants (UDI) +34 (nc)
Les Républicains (LR) +15 (-13)
Parti Socialiste (PS) -1 (+1)
Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV) -2 (+5)
no party preference -21 (+4)
La France Insoumise (FI) -42 (-13)
Front National (FN) -40 (-5)

 

Fieldwork: 27.10-28.10.2017. Published: 04.10.2017. Participants: 1004. Methodology: Online poll. Media partners: Paris Match, Sud Radio. Full report on the Ifop website here.

 

FOLLOW EPR on Twitter here.

SHARE this article: