As Germany’s ‘Jamaica’ coalition negotiations inch forward, October’s opinion polls have shown a further loss of momentum for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU. Only 3 of the 19 national surveys published during the month saw the combined Christian Democrat forces match their result in the Federal election of 24 September. The slippage on the October polling average was just 1.2 percentage points, but within the average were a number of new lows:
- two scores of 31 per cent Emnid, a total last seen in this regular weekly polling in August 2011;
- another 31 per cent score with Forsa, the worst in this weekly series since May 2012;
- the lowest total with GMS since September 2010: the Bavarian agency polls monthly.
For the other parties, there is for the most part little difference between the October average and their election scores. The Greens hit 11 per cent in six opinion polls in October, compared to 8.9 per cent at the ballot box – whether this is a result of their high profile in the coalition talks, or just the continuation of momentum built late in the election campaign, remains to be seen.
With the four-party talks predicted to last until the end of the year, any movements in the polls are likely to be insignificant compared to the public’s eventual reaction to a draft coalition agreement and the share out of key ministerial posts. Equally, should the ‘Jamaica’ project fail altogether, the prospect of fresh elections may be raised: in that scenario (though remote at present), the polls would suddenly take on great importance.
OCTOBER POLLING AVERAGES
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on election result in brackets):
Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 31.7 (-1.2) range 31 to 33
Social Democrats (SPD) 21.0 (+0.5) range 20 to 22
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 12.3 (-0.3) range 11 to 13
Free Democrats (FDP) 11.1 (+0.4) range 10 to 12
Greens (Die Gruenen) 10.1 (+1.2) range 9 to 11
Left (Die Linke) 9.4 (+0.2) range 9 to 10
Others 4.5 (-0.5) range 4 to 5
Pollsters and media partners for October: Allensbach Institut (FAZ) 1 poll, Emnid (Bild am Sonntag) 4 polls, Forsa (Stern, RTL) 4 polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) 2 polls, GMS 1 poll, Infratest dimap (ARD) 2 polls, Insa (Bild) 5 polls.
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