Norway’s Labour in ‘crisis’ as support slumps

A triple release of polling data yesterday provoked fresh headlines of ‘crisis’ for the election campaign of Jonas Gahr Store, leader of Norway’s opposition Labour Party (AP). All three surveys put Labour below 28 per cent, around three points off their 2013 General Election score and enough to raise the prospect of several seat losses. Earlier in the year Labour had only rarely dipped below 30 per cent: but this month 8 of 13 polls have shown that outcome.

________________________________________

Polling averages for Norsk Arbeiderparti

General Election 2013: 30.8 per cent
May 2017: 31.8 per cent (9 polls)
June 2017: 31.7 per cent (11 polls)
July 2017: 32.1 per cent (2 polls)
August to date: 28.9 per cent (13 polls)

_______________________________________

 

With the Storting vote due on 11 September, opinion polls are coming thick and fast and it is notable that Labour has dropped 2.9 points with InFact and half a point with Kantar TNS despite only a few days elapsing between surveys.

The ruling Conservatives (Hoyre) are also polling short of their 2013 score of 26.8 per cent, and may face seat losses too depending on how the regional distribution of votes pans out. However their polling average remains remarkably stable at just over 23 per cent, as it has done throughout 2017.

The country’s third party, the populist FRP or Progress Party jumps to above 15 per cent in two out of the three polls published yesterday. This brings it closer to the 16.3 per cent score gained in 2013, which would be a considerable achievement after the compromises of four years’ participation in coalition government.

Mixed results for the Centre Party (SP) continue with two good scores at 12 per cent in the latest releases contrasting with other recent polls that have shown a falling back to single figures. Either way the Centre stands to make big seat gains in just over two weeks time.

 

 

Coalition formation after 11 September is likely to be determined by the fate of several smaller parties. As the chart above shows, they are closely grouped. Junior coalition partners Venstre continue to struggle around the 4 per cent hurdle while the Greens (MDG) look increasingly likely to beat it and add to their sole member of parliament. The hard-left Red party (lacking representation currently) is on the up, with numerous scores over 3 per cent, compared to 1.1 per cent in 2013.

The Socialist Left Party (SV) continues to poll well in the latest trio of surveys and its August polling average of 5.3 per cent is ahead of its 2013 score of 4.1 per cent.

Finally the Christian People’s Party (KRF), also part of the outgoing government, will probably hold its present support level, but outlying poll scores such as a mere 3.2 per cent with Kantar TNS yesterday must be a worry.

 

INFACT 24 August
Storting voting intentions, per cent
(change on 19 August in brackets)

Labour Party (AP) 27.6 (-2.9)
Conservatives (Hoyre) *  22.2 (+0.3)
Progress Party (FRP) *  12.0 (-0.1)
Centre Party (SP) 12.0 (+1.1)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 6.6 (+1.0)
Christian People’s Party (KRF) *  5.3 (+0.1)
Greens (MDG) 4.9 (+1.0)
Liberals (Venstre) *  3.6 (-0.5)
Red Party (Rodt) 3.6 (-0.1)
Others 2.3 (-0.1)

Fieldwork: 23.08.2017. Published: 24.08.2017. Participants: 2043. Media partner: VG. Report here.

 

KANTAR TNS 24 August
Storting voting intentions, per cent
(change on 20 August in brackets)

Labour Party (AP) 27.9 (-0.5)
Conservatives (Hoyre) *  23.3 (-0.5)
Progress Party (FRP) *  15.4 (+2.7)
Centre Party (SP) 12.1 (+1.6)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 5.5 (-0.9)
Greens (MDG) 4.7 (+1.3)
Christian People’s Party (KRF) *  3.2 (-2.1)
Liberals (Venstre) *  3.2 (-0.3)
Red Party (Rodt) 3.1 (-0.7)
Others 1.5 (-0.7)

Fieldwork: 18.08-23.08.2017. Published: 24.08.2017. Participants: 1070. Media partner: TV2. Coverage of poll here.

 

RESPONS ANALYSE 24 August
Storting voting intentions, per cent
(change on 11 August in brackets)

Labour Party (AP) 27.3 (-0.8)
Conservatives (Hoyre) *  25.1 (+0.3)
Progress Party (FRP) * 15.5 (+1.9)
Centre Party (SP) 10.8 (+0.7)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 4.5 (-1.9)
Christian People’s Party (KRF) *  4.5 (-0.6)
Greens (MDG) 3.9 (+0.2)
Liberals (Venstre) *  3.7 (+0.1)
Red Party (Rodt) 3.2 (+0.5)
Others 1.5 (-0.4)

Fieldwork: 18.08-23.08.2017. Published: 24.08.2017. Participants: 1000. Media partners: Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende, Adresseavisen. Report from Aftenposten here.

*denotes member of ruling coalition government

 

FOLLOW EPR on Twitter here.

SHARE this article: