Varadkar leads in first poll since Fine Gael selection

New Taoiseach Leo Varadkar sees his Fine Gael party leading in Ireland’s first poll with all fieldwork carried out since his election was declared on 2 June. However, yesterday’s Red C survey for the Sunday Business Post also shows a closing of the gap to opposition Fianna Fail from eight to three points, suggesting little honeymoon in the polls for the new Irish premier.

 

 

The previous Red C poll, published on 29 May, was researched in the midst of the Fine Gael leadership campaign and the firm itself suggests the resultant publicity for the party will have contributed to that exceptional eight-point lead. Given that Fianna Fail led Fine Gael in Red C’s monthly polls from January to April this year, as it did in nearly all other surveys, the latest lead still represents an improvement for the minority governing party.

Elsewhere Sinn Fein pull back three points from the May survey – again, this May poll appears to have been something of an outlier, and the 18 point score for July is much close to the third party’s recent run of form.

It is hard to establish a pattern for the small movements among the country’s several smaller parties. There is a notable six-point drop in voting intentions for independent candidates, a category where support levels are often volatile.

 

RED C / SUNDAY BUSINESS POST
First preference voting intentions, per cent
(change on 29 May poll in brackets):

Fine Gael 27 (-2)
Fianna Fail 24 (+3)
Sinn Fein 18 (+3)
Labour 6 (nc)
Greens 4 (+1)
Independent Alliance 4 (+1)
Solidarity-PBP 4 (+1)
Renua 3 (+2)
Social Democrats 2 (-2)
Others 0 (-1)
Independents 8 (-6)

Fieldwork: 03.07-05.07.2017. Published: 09.07.2017. Participants: 1004. Methodology: Telephone poll, weighted by past voting and likelihood to vote. Full details from Red C here.

 

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