Andrew Cornwell Germany

Another low score for AfD with Ipsos Germany

German populists the AfD (Alternative for Germany) continue to struggle in July’s opinion polls, with an 8 per cent score in today’s Ipsos poll being the joint lowest for the party since Ipsos began its currently fortnightly series in September 2016.

 

Ipsos Germany 13 July 2017

 

Other recent lows for the AfD include:

  • 7 per cent with GMS on 6 July, the lowest in that pollster’s monthly surveys since October 2015.
  • 7 per cent with Emnid’s weekly polls on 1 July and 8 July, the lowest with that agency since November 2015.
  • The same score with Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on 7 July (and down to just 5 per cent on the raw, unweighted data in that poll).
  • 6.5 per cent with Allensbach on 20 June, a level not seen in that series since September 2015.

Given past tendencies for the party to ‘overpoll’ between elections and then underperform at the ballot box, the position will worry the AfD leadership with just over two months until the Federal Election. At least the party’s score has ticked up a point with two other polling organisations, Insa and Infratest dimap, after recent new lows in each case.

Meanwhile the violent events at the G20 summit in Hamburg and subsequent rows over political responsibility for policing have not yet shown up in the Ipsos survey, nor in YouGov’s poll issued yesterday. But with fieldwork carried out during or very close to last weekend, it is probably too early for any major effect to be felt. In both surveys the CDU/CSU maintains an enormous lead over the SPD, with the four smaller parties closely clustered together.

 

IPSOS 13 July
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on 29 June in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 39 (nc)
Social Democrats (SPD) 26 (+1)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 8 (-1)
Free Democrats (FDP) 8 (nc)
Left (Die Linke) 8 (nc)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 7 (nc)
Others 4 (nc)

Fieldwork: 07.07-11.07.2017. Released: 13.07.2017. Participants: 1047. Method: Online poll.

 

YOU GOV 12 July
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on 29 June in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 38 (nc)
Social Democrats (SPD) 24 (-1)
Free Democrats (FDP) 9 (+1)
Left (Die Linke) 9 (nc)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 8 (nc)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 8 (nc)
Others 4 (nc)

Fieldwork: 10.07-12.07.2017. Released: 12.07.2017. Participants: 1535. Method: Online poll. Media partner: RND.

 

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