A triple set of state-level opinion polls has been released today by public broadcaster Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk covering national parliamentary voting intentions across three regions in the centre and south of East Germany.

The results will be a delight for Chancellor Angela Merkel, with her Christian Democrat party (CDU) strongly outperforming already high nationwide scores of 36 to 38 per cent. The CDU racks up 46 per cent in Saxony, 45 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt and 43 per cent in Thuringia. What is more these totals have all dramatically increased since the last comparable polling in these states back in November 2016. And all represent a 3-4 point increase on actual CDU votes in the last Federal Election in September 2013.

 

 

Losers in these surveys are the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD). The long gap between November and June conveys the impression that the ‘Schulz effect’ arising from the SPD’s leadership change never happened. While the AfD continues to easily outpoll its national ratings in this part of Eastern Germany, it too has lost significant ground – three points in Saxony and Thuringia, and five in Saxony-Anhalt.

Another eastern political tradition more than 25 years after German reunification is the relative strength of the leftist Die Linke which is broadly maintained in these polls – in Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia the party is attracting twice as much support as it does nationally. In all three regions Die Linke has significantly widened its lead over the SPD in the contest for the left-of-centre electorate.

 

Little change at national level

Separately, INSA/You Gov has issued its weekly survey for Bild covering Germany as a whole. There is a one-point loss for the CDU/CSU, and a 1.5 point gain for the SPD, with all other political forces unchanged. With only just over three months go until the Bundestag election, the CDU lead of 11.5 points remains a very large gap for the SPD to close.

 

SACHSEN 20 June
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on November 2016 in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 46.0 (+8.0)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 18.0 (-2.0)
Left (Die Linke) 14.0 (-1.0)
Social Democrats (SPD) 11.0 (-3.0)
Free Democrats (FDP) 5.0 (-)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 3.0 (-4.0)
Others 3.0 (-3.0)

Fieldwork: 12.06-17.06.2017. Participants: 1000. Method: Telephone poll by Infratest dimap.

 

SACHSEN-ANHALT 20 June
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on November 2016 in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 45.0 (+6.0)
Left (Die Linke) 17.0 (nc)
Social Democrats (SPD) 14.0 (-2.0)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 11.0 (-5.0)
Free Democrats (FDP) 6.0 (+3.0)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 4.0 (nc)
Others 3.0 (-2.0)

Fieldwork: 12.06-17.06.2017. Participants: 1000. Method: Telephone poll by Infratest dimap.

 

THUERINGEN 20 June
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on November 2016 in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 43.0 (+8.0)
Left (Die Linke) 20.0 (+3.0)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 12.0 (-3.0)
Social Democrats (SPD) 12.0 (-8.0)
Free Democrats (FDP) 5.0 (nc)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 4.0 (nc)
Others 4.0 (nc)

Fieldwork: 12.06-17.06.2017. Participants: 1000. Method: Telephone poll by Infratest dimap.

Full details of all three MDR polls can be found here.

 

INSA/YOU GOV 20 June (national)
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on 12 June in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 36.5 (-1.0)
Social Democrats (SPD) 25.0 (+1.5)
Left (Die Linke) 11.0 (nc)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 9.0 (nc)
Free Democrats (FDP) 9.0 (nc)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 6.5 (nc)
Others 3.0 (-0.5)

Fieldwork: 16.06-19.06.2017. Released: 20.06.2017. Participants: 2040. Method: Online poll.

 

Image: Riverside view of Dresden, Saxony, Germany. Photo: Andrew Cornwell. All rights reserved.

 

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