Fillon within one point of the lead

With just six days to go until the first round of French Presidential elections, polls are coming thick and fast. Of today’s three surveys, the lunchtime daily ‘rolling’ from Opinionway has inevitably attracted the most attention – as it shows Francois Fillon within one point of the leaders, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, who are tied on 22 per cent. Jean-Luc Mélenchon also gains slightly, putting the top four candidates within four points on first round voting intentions.

 

 

Ifop/Fiducial’s daily poll this evening has an even tighter spread, with just 3.5 points separating the four leading contenders. Here Macron has a fractional edge over Le Pen, with Fillon and Mélenchon level on 19.5 per cent each.

Elabe’s survey, also out tonight, shows a slightly different trend to most recent polls, with Macron and Le Pen both moving north and Fillon and Mélenchon southbound. However all four changes in the figures are only of half a point! In other words, little has changed compared to Elabe’s last research published on the Thursday before Easter.

In all three polls Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon cuts a sorry figure, losing further ground in each. The intriguing question now is how much of his remaining support will migrate to Mélenchon and Macron respectively before Sunday’s vote.

Elabe presents all six potential second round scenarios, showing Le Pen well beaten by all her possible opponents. Worryingly for Francois Fillon, it is only against Le Pen that respondents credit him with the victory – heavy defeats to Macron and Mélenchon are anticipated.

 

Opinionway 17 April
First round voting intentions, per cent
(comparison to 14 April poll in brackets)

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 22.0 (nc)
Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 22.0 (-1.0)
Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 21.0 (+1.0)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 18.0 (+1.0)
Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 8.0 (-1.0)
Others (6 candidates combined) 9.0 (nc)

Second round scenarios:
Macron 64.0 (+2.0) vs. Le Pen 36.0 (-2.0)
Fillon 60.0 (+2.0) vs. Le Pen 40.0 (-2.0)

Fieldwork: 14.04-16.04.2017. Participants: 2168. Methodology: Online ‘rolling’ poll. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique, ORPI.

 

Ifop/Fiducial 17 April
First round voting intentions, per cent
(comparison to 14 April poll in brackets)

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 23.0 (+0.5)
Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 22.5 (-0.5)
Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 19.5 (+0.5)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 19.5 (+0.5)
Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 7.5 (-0.5)
Others (6 candidates combined) 8.0 (-0.5)

Second round scenario:
Macron 60.0 (+1.0) vs. Le Pen 40.0 (-1.0)

Fieldwork: 13.04-17.04.2017. Participants: 2796. Methodology: Online ‘rolling’ poll. Media partners: Paris Match, CNews, Sud Radio.

 

Elabe 17 April
First round voting intentions, per cent
(comparison to 13 April poll in brackets)

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 24.0 (+0.5)
Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 23.0 (+0.5)
Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 19.5 (-0.5)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 18.0 (-0.5)
Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 8.0 (-1.0)
Others (6 candidates combined) 7.5 (+1.0)

Second round scenarios:
Macron 62.0 vs. Le Pen 38.0
Macron 65.0 vs. Fillon 35.0
Macron 59.0 vs. Mélenchon 41.0
Fillon 57.0 vs. Le Pen 43.0
Mélenchon 57.0 vs. Fillon 43.0
Mélenchon 58.0 vs. Le Pen 42.0

Fieldwork: 16.04-17.04.2017. Participants: 1438. Methodology: Online poll. Media partners: L’Express, BFMTV.

 

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