Andrew Cornwell France

Final French Presidential polls before Sunday’s first round vote

Ahead of the legal ban on opinion polls that comes into force at midnight tonight, six of France’s eight pollsters have issued their final research today. Only one of the six – Odoxa’s survey – had fieldwork entirely carried out after the terrorist attack in Paris on the night of Thursday 20 April, the same evening when the eleven candidate made their final presentations on national television.

A final average score taken from the last figures given by each of the eight pollsters is shown in the chart below, with the scores for the five smallest candidates being combined.

 

Chart by Visualizer

 

Taking today’s six polls, along with the final research from Harris (20 April) and Kantar Sofres (18 April), the first round voting intention picture is remarkably consistent between the polls:

  • All eight show an incredibly tight race, with six percentage points at most between the leading four candidates.
  • All eight show centrist Emmanuel Macron in the lead, albeit that he ties for that lead with Marine Le Pen in one (BVA).
  • Seven of the eight show Marine Le Pen of the Front National in second, with a maximum gap of just three points to Macron. In turn her lead over conservative Francois Fillon is slim, at between one and 4.5 points.
  • Five of the eight show Fillon ahead of leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon by a mere neck, the remaining three putting them tied on 19 per cent each.
  • All eight polls have Socialist Parti candidate Benoit Hamon on 7 to 8 per cent.
  • All eight polls give sovereignist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan either 4 or 4.5 per cent.

While the secondary questions asked by the different pollsters vary in their wording, it is clear that many electors have not yet reached a conclusion ahead of Sunday’s ballot. The level of anticipated participation has been creeping up, but a relatively high level of abstention still seems likely, particularly given the negative ratings accorded to the election campaign as a whole by many respondents.

On certainty of choice type questions, demonstrating commitment of supporters to ‘their’ candidates, Marine Le Pen remains the most solid, usually scoring in the mid-eighties per cent. She is closely followed by Francois Fillon. Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have greatly improved on this measure, but still both face proportions of between 25 and 30 per cent of their ‘supporters’ who may not follow through on Sunday. Benoit Hamon has the lowest certainty to vote score.

 

Ifop/Fiducial
Emmanuel Macron 24.5, Marine Le Pen 22.5, Francois Fillon 19.5, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.5, Benoit Hamon 7, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 4, Philippe Poutou 1.5, Francois Asselineau 1, Jean Lassalle 1, Nathalie Arthaud 0.5, Jacques Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 18.04-21.04.2017. Released: 21.04.2017 Participants: 2823. Online ‘rolling’ poll. Media partners: CNews, Paris Match, Sud Radio.


Opinionway
Macron 23, Le Pen 22, Fillon 21, Mélenchon 18, Hamon 8, Dupont-Aignan 4, Poutou 2, Asselineau 1, Lassalle 1, Arthaud 0, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 18.04-20.04.2017. Released: 21.04.2017. Participants: 2269. Online ‘rolling’ poll. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique, ORPI.


Ipsos Sopra Steria
Macron 24, Le Pen 22, Fillon 19, Mélenchon 19, Hamon 7.5, Dupont-Aignan 4, Lassalle 1.5, Poutou 1.5, Arthaud 0.5, Asselineau 1, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 19.04-20.04.2017. Released: 21.04.2017. Participants: 2048. Online poll. Media partners: France Télévisions, Radio France.


Elabe
Macron 24, Le Pen 21.5, Fillon 20, Mélenchon 19.5, Hamon 7, Dupont-Aignan 4, Poutou 1.5, Asselineau 1, Lassalle 1, Arthaud 0.5, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 19.04-20.04.2017. Released: 21.04.2017. Participants: 1445. Online poll. Media partners: L’Express, BFMTV.


Odoxa
Macron 24.5, Le Pen 23, Fillon 19, Mélenchon 19, Hamon 7.5, Dupont-Aignan 4.5, Poutou 1, Asselineau 1, Lassalle 0.5, Arthaud 0, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 21.04.2017. Released: 21.04.17. Participants: 953. Online poll. Media partner: Le Point.


BVA
Macron 23, Le Pen 23, Fillon 19, Mélenchon 19.5, Hamon 8, Dupont-Aignan 4, Poutou 1.5, Asselineau 0.5, Lassalle 1, Arthaud 0.5, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 20.04-21.04.2017. Released: 21.04.17. Participants: 1494. Online poll. Media partners: Presse regionale, Orange.


Harris Interactive
Macron 25, Le Pen 22, Fillon 19, Mélenchon 19, Hamon 7.5, Dupont-Aignan 4, Poutou 1.5, Asselineau 0.5, Lassalle 1, Arthaud 0.5, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 18.04-19.04.2017. Released: 20.04.2017. Participants: 2812. Online poll. Media partner: France Télévisions.


Kantar Sofres Onepoint
Macron 24, Le Pen 23, Fillon 18.5, Mélenchon 18, Hamon 8, Dupont-Aignan 4, Poutou 2, Asselineau 1, Lassalle 1, Arthaud 0.5, Cheminade 0

Fieldwork: 14.04-17.04.2017. Released: 18.04.2017. Participants: 1530. Online poll. Media partners: Le Figaro, LCI, RTL.

 

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