Final polling for the Czech Parliamentary election

Voters in the Czech Republic go to the polls tomorrow (Friday 20th) and Saturday to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, with the ANO (‘Yes’) movement of Andrej Babis continuing to hold a commanding lead in the final polling.

ANO has clearly emerged the better from this summer’s coalition crisis than their partners in government the Czech Social Democrats (CSSD) who won the October 2013 election by 20.5 per cent to ANO’s 18.7 per cent, but now face a severe defeat.

With polling through September and October often putting ANO’s score at double that of the CSSD, the main interest now lies in how great the margin of victory will be. Billionaire businessman and ex-Finance Minister Babis has seen some limited loss of support since being placed under judicial investigation during the campaign. Other interest centres around the scores of potential future coalition partners: these include the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), the Civic Democrats of ODS and the centre-right TOP09.

The communist KSCM, the country’s third biggest political force, has continued to poll consistently within the 10 to 14 per cent range this year, short of its 2013 election score of 14.9 per cent. The Pirates, now largely defunct elsewhere in Europe, continue to shows signs of life in Czech politics, turning in some surprisingly high polls.

Hard right-wing nationalists the SPD have also achieved some high polling scores recently and could contribute a surprise result this weekend. Among smaller forces, the Greens of Zeleni have failed to lift-off as has the Mayors and Independent network, STAN. New party, the Realists, have also lingered at the low end of the polls.

The final voting intention figures from the country’s main pollsters are listed below. CVVM’s last survey which appeared nearly a month ago is excluded, as is a more recent poll from SANEP which measured ‘voting potential’ – but which also gave ANO a clear lead.

 

MEDIAN 16.10
ANO 25, CSSD 12.5, KSCM 10.5, SPD 9.5, ODS 9.0, Pirati 8.5, KDU-CSL 6.5, TOP09 6.0, STAN 4.0, Zeleni 3.5, Others 5.0

Fieldwork: 26.09-14.10.2017. Participants: 1081.

 

MEDEA RESEARCH 16.10
ANO 25.1, KSCM 14.4, SPD 10.5, CSSD 9.8, Pirati 9.3, ODS 6.6, KDU-CSL 6.8, TOP09 6.0, STAN 4.8, Zeleni 2.2, Others 4.5

Fieldwork: 03.10-07.10.2017. Participants: 1011.

 

FOCUS 13.10
ANO 26.5, CSSD 15.7, KSCM 12.4, ODS 9.9, SPD 7.1, TOP09 7.0, Pirati 6.6, KDU-CSL 6.2, STAN 2.9, Zeleni 2.6, Others 3.2

Fieldwork: 03.10-10.10.2017. Participants: 999.

 

PHOENIX RESEARCH 09.10
ANO 26.3, KSCM 10.2, CSSD 9.6, ODS 8.0, STAN 4.9, KDU-CSL 4.6, TOP09 4.6, Pirati 4.5, SPD 4.0, Zeleni 2.2, Others/undecided 25.7

Fieldwork: 11.09-08.10.2017. Participants: 1078.

 

STEM/MARK 08.10
ANO 26.5, KSCM 14.2, CSSD 12.2, ODS 8.9, SPD 8.2, Pirati 6.1, KDU-CSL 5.8, TOP09 4.9, STAN 3.1, Zeleni 3.0, Others 7.1

Fieldwork: 26.09-14.10.2017. Participants: 1081.

 

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