France: Fillon, on the brink, hits polling low

The first poll to be entirely researched since Francois Fillon confirmed he will face criminal charges delivers the predictable blow to the crisis-hit conservative candidate – he sinks to 17 per cent of first round voting intentions with Kantar Sofres Onepoint this evening, his lowest rating in any poll of the campaign so far.

It is a sign of the desperate times faced by Les Républicains that pollsters are re-introducing Alain Juppé – the primary contender so soundly defeated by Fillon – into their questioning. Kantar, like Odoxa before it on Friday, gave respondents two LR candidate options. The results show Juppé would outpoll Fillon by a huge 7.5 point margin, relegating Emmanuel Macron to a clear third place.

A slew of other negative findings emphasise why so many of his party’s elite have withdrawn their support from Fillon. Kantar’s question measuring the ‘potential electorate’ shows 47 per cent of all voters might consider voting for Juppé, against just 22 per cent for Fillon. 58 per cent say they would never vote for Fillon, higher than the 53 per cent who would never support the FN’s Marine Le Pen.

Just 10 per cent believe Fillon will win the election, down 6 points in a week. And, perhaps most tellingly, only 28 per cent feel Fillon would make a good President of the Republic – just below Le Pen (29) and behind struggling Socialist Benoit Hamon (32). On this question, Juppé achieves a positive score of 47 per cent, neck-and-neck with Macron who tops the ranking on 48.

 

KANTAR SOFRES ONEPOINT
First round voting intentions, per cent (change on 26 Feb poll in brackets):

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 26.0 (-1)
  • Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 17.0 (-3)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 25.0 (nc)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 16.0 (+2)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 12.0 (+2)
  • Others 4.0 (nc)

Alternative scenario with Juppé replacing Fillon:

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 27.0 (nc)
  • Alain Juppé (Les Républicains, LR) 24.5 (+4.5)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 20.0 (-5)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 13.0 (-1)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 11.0 (+1)
  • Others 4.5 (+0.5)

Second round voting intentions: no data published

Fieldwork: 02.03-04.03.2017. Released: 05.03.2017. Participants: 1027. Methodology: Online. Media partners: Le Figaro, LCI. Full tables on the Kantar Sofres and Le Figaro websites.

 

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