Andrew Cornwell France

France: Macron’s dip over with Elabe, Le Pen slightly weaker

Ten days ago Emmanuel Macron saw a drop in fortunes in Elabe’s opinion poll following controversial statements on colonisation and gay marriage. But this now appears to be something of a blip, with the pollster’s latest survey today putting him back firmly in second place – in line with other voting intention reports.

 

Chateau at Sully-sur-Loire, Loiret, France. Photo: Andrew Cornwell. All rights reserved.

The independent candidate who aims to appeal to both right and left has soared five and half points and swapped places with conservative Francois Fillon, who loses two points to move the wrong side of the 20 per cent barrier. With part of the fieldwork for this poll being carried out before yesterday’s dramatic announcement that Fillon will soon formally be charged, the true extent of his decline in support is probably not yet fully reflected in the figures.

By contrast Marine Le Pen’s support remains largely untroubled by accusations surrounding European Parliamentary funding for her Front National party. However she slips back on second round voting intentions in hypothetical run-offs against both Macron (down three points) and Fillon (down two).

Doing a deal with the Greens to remove their candidate Yannick Jadot from the race has done nothing to boost Socialist Benoit Hamon’s support, according to Elabe. He and leftist rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon are little changed.

In the two daily rolling polls, from Ifop/Fiducial and Opinionway, there has been practically no movement for any candidate. Again, it should be stressed that most responses to these surveys – which run over three or four-day periods – will have been submitted before news of Fillon’s latest judicial troubles.

 

ELABE
First round voting intentions, per cent (change on 21 Feb poll in brackets):

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 27.0 (-1)
  • Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 19.0 (-2)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 24.0 (+5.5)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 12.5 (-0.5)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 12.5 (-0.5)
  • Others 5.0 (-0.5)

Second round voting intentions:
Macron 62.0 (+3), Le Pen 38.0 (-3)
Fillon 58.0 (+2), Le Pen 42.0 (-2)

Fieldwork: 28.02-02.03.2017. Released: 02.03.2017. Participants: 1507. Methodology: Online. Figures based on those ‘certain’ or ‘almost certain’ to vote, excluding ‘Don’t Knows’, approximately 1000 respondents. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique.

 

IFOP/FIDUCIAL
First round voting intentions, per cent, 2 March (change on 1 March poll in brackets):

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 26.0 (+0.5)
  • Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 21.0 (nc)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 24.0 (nc)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 14.5 (+0.5)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 11.0 (nc)
  • Others 3.5 (-1)

Second round voting intentions:
Macron 61.0 (-1), Le Pen 39.0 (+1)

Fieldwork: 27.02-02.03.2017. Released: 02.03.2017. Participants: 1394. Methodology: Online ‘rolling’ poll with 500 new responses added daily. Media partners: CNews, Paris Match, Sud Radio.

 

OPINIONWAY
First round voting intentions, per cent, 2 March (change on 1 March poll in brackets):

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 25.0 (nc)
  • Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 21.0 (nc)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 23.0 (-1)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 16.0 (nc)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 11.0 (nc)
  • Others 4.0 (+1)

Second round voting intentions:
Macron 63.0 (nc), Le Pen 37.0 (nc)
Fillon 60.0 (nc), Le Pen 40.0 (nc)

Fieldwork: 27.02-01.03.2017. Released: 02.03.2017. Participants: 1639. Methodology: Online ‘rolling’ poll with 500 new responses added daily. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique, ORPI.

 

Photograph: Chateau at Sully-sur-Loire, Loiret, France. Photo: Andrew Cornwell. All rights reserved.

 

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