There have been four new national polls out today and yesterday in Norway, plus several county-level surveys. With six months to parliamentary elections, there is more delight for the surging Centre Party (SP), which is consolidating its support above 10 per cent as the Conservative-led coalition struggles to the end of its term.
In the Kantar TNS monthly poll for TV2, the party hits 11.1 per cent, its best total in this long-running series since 1997.
With Respons Analyse the Centre’s 10.7 per cent of voting intentions is the highest level achieved since the pollster started its monthly survey for Aftenposten in 2006. And with Norstat for NRK there is a jump of 2.3 points in a month to reach 10.9 per cent.
To put these figures further into perspective, the SP averaged 7.8 per cent in the polls in January, and achieved just 5.5 per cent in the September 2013 election.
For the two large blocs the results are grouped around the February average of 33.1 per cent for Labour (AP) and 23.4 per cent for the Conservatives (Hoyre). As in previous months InFact for the VG newspaper is tending to show a better AP performance than average (35.6 per cent) and a worse one for the ruling Hoyre (20.8 per cent), which may indicate some kind of ‘house effect’.
The populist Progress Party (FRP) will not be happy to score as low as 11.1 per cent with InFact and 11.4 per cent with Respons Analyse – these are its two worst scores of 2017 so far. It does better with Kantar but still loses 2.5 points in a month, while Norstat has a different picture with a gain of 1.3 points. All these numbers stand below the FRP’s 2013 election result of 16.3 per cent.
Storting voting intentions, per cent:
InFact (change on 6 Feb)
AP 35.6 (+2.6), Hoyre 20.8 (-1.3), FRP 11.1 (-2.1), SP 11.0 (+0.8), KRF 4.9 (-0.5), Venstre 5.1 (+0.7), SV 4.3 (-0.5), MDG 3.1 (-0.2), Rodt 1.8 (-0.6), Others 2.3 (+0.2).
Fieldwork: 06.03-08.03.2017. Release: 10.03.2017. Participants: 2030.
Respons Analyse (change on 10 Feb)
AP 32.0 (-2.8), Hoyre 24.8 (+0.4), FRP 11.4 (-2.0), SP 10.7 (+1.6), KRF 5.4 (+0.8), Venstre 3.7 (-0.1), SV 4.6 (+0.3), MDG 3.5 (+1.2), Rodt 2.6 (+0.8), Others 1.3 (-0.2).
Fieldwork: 06.03-08.03.2017. Release: 09.03.2017. Participants: 1001
Norstat (change on 8 Feb)
AP 32.8 (-0.2), Hoyre 22.4 (-2.2), FRP 14.4 (+1.3), SP 10.9 (+2.3), KRF 4.6 (-1.2), Venstre 3.9 (+0.5), SV 4.4 (-0.7), MDG 2.1 (-1.0), Rodt 2.0 (+0.9), Others 2.5 (+0.2).
Fieldwork: 28.02-06.03.2017. Release: 09.03.2017. Participants: 927.
Kantar TNS (change on 8 Feb)
AP 32.5 (-0.7), Hoyre 23.7 (+1.6), FRP 13.2 (-2.5), SP 11.1 (+1.2), KRF 5.4 (+1.6), Venstre 3.6 (-0.3), SV 4.7 (+1.2), MDG 2.1 (-1.7), Rodt 2.5 (+0.5), Others 1.4 (-0.2).
Release: 09.03.2017. Participants: 1055.
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