Andrew Cornwell Iceland

Iceland’s Social Democrats make poll gains

Both of Iceland’s main polling organisations have now published their June surveys, and the generally calm picture they show is quite a contrast to the huge volatility of the last two years. That picture is quite similar between Gallup (for RUV) and MMR Market & Media Research:

  • The ruling centre-right Independence Party, with around 25 per cent of voting intentions, is holding a modest lead over the Left Green Movement, whose surge in support appears to have reached a plateau.
  • The third placed Pirate Party has halted its dramatic decline to steady their anti-establishment ship around the 12 to 13 per cent mark.
  • Support for the populist Progressive Party holds around an 11 to 13 per cent band, although a good score of 13.4 per cent in the MMR poll may herald a breakout.
  • The economically-liberal Reform Party is maintaining a steady 5-6 per cent, in contrast to fellow liberals Bright Future who see their base gradually draining away, down to a 2017 low of 2.9 per cent with MMR.

 

Chart by Visualizer

 

It is the Social Democratic Alliance who are the standout winners this month, achieving their best scores of the year with both Gallup and MMR at 9.4 and 11.3 per cent respectively.

Among ‘Others’, the new Flokkur Folksins party is credited with 4.2 per cent support by Gallup, their best performance in any poll to date.

 

MMR 20 June
Voting intentions, Althing, per cent
(change on 31 May poll in brackets):

Sjalfstaedisflokkurinn (Independence Party) 24.9 (-0.7) *
Vinstri-Graen (Left Green Movement) 20.6 (-0.8)
Piratar (Pirate Party) 13.7 (-0.4)
Framsoknarflokkurinn (Progressive Party) 13.4 (+1.2)
Samfylkingin (Social Democratic Alliance) 11.3 (+2.0)
Vidreisn (Reform Party) 5.2 (-0.3) *
Bjort framtid  (Bright Future) 2.9 (-0.5) *
Others 8.0 (-0.7)

*Denotes governing coalition party.

Fieldwork: 06.06-14.06.2017. Published: 20.03.2017. Participants: 974. Methodology: Online poll. Full results here.

 

GALLUP 5 June
Voting intentions, Althing, per cent
(change on 5 May poll in brackets):

Sjalfstaedisflokkurinn (Independence Party) 25.6 (-0.8) *
Vinstri-Graen (Left Green Movement) 24.3 (+0.3)
Piratar (Pirate Party) 12.9 (-0.2)
Framsoknarflokkurinn (Progressive Party) 11.1 (+0.2)
Samfylkingin (Social Democratic Alliance) 9.4 (+1.1)
Bjort framtid (Bright Future) 3.6 (-0.8) *
Vidreisn  (Reform Party) 6.2 (-0.7) *
Others 6.9 (+0.9)

*Denotes governing coalition party.

Fieldwork: 03.05-31.05.2017. Published: 05.06.2017. Participants: 7133. Methodology: Online poll. Full results here.

 

 

 

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