Andrew Cornwell Norway

Labour crashes to ‘lowest since 1924’ after sexual harassment crisis

Last night’s Norstat poll for NRK is one that is already making Norwegian political history. The full impact of the crisis gripping the opposition Labour Party (AP), for so long the country’s dominant force, hits homes as it slumps to just 20.1 per cent support. Were the poll findings to be applied to historic election results, NRK claims this would be the party’s lowest point since 1924.

Nearly all fieldwork for this stunning survey was carried out before the weekend resignation of AP deputy leader Trond Giske, who is facing allegations of sexual harassment. Labour is now seven points below its General Election score from September, which was already a poor performance. And it has slumped 5.7 points since the comparable Norstat/NRK poll on 4 December.

 

Chart by Visualizer

 

Meanwhile the ruling Conservatives (Hoyre) under Erna Solberg will hardly believe they hold an eight-point lead, up by two since that December poll. A seat projection from this poll gives the right’s ‘blue bloc’ 91 seats to the ‘red’ bloc’s 78. That will be an encouragement to Solberg as coalition talks with the Liberals of Venstre to broaden her administration continue. Existing coalition partner the Progress Party (FRP) has seen little movement in its support since the election.

Among opposition parties, notable gainers compared to both the election result and the December Norstat opinion poll are the Centre (SP) and the Socialist Left Party (SV). The latter enjoys its best voting intention level since 2009 at 8.3 per cent – having scored 6 per cent at the ballot box.

 

NORSTAT 9 January
Storting voting intentions, per cent
(change on 2017 election result in brackets)

Conservatives (Hoyre) 28.7 (+2.7)
Labour Party (AP) 20.1 (-7.3)
Progress Party (FRP) 14.9 (-0.3)
Centre Party (SP) 12.2 (+1.9)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 8.3 (+2.3)
Christian People’s Party (KRF) 4.6 (+0.4)
Liberals (Venstre) 3.6 (-0.8)
Red Party (Rodt) 2.9 (+0.5)
Greens (MDG) 2.7 (-0.5)
Others 2.0 (+0.2)

Fieldwork: 02.01-08.01.2017. Published: 09.01.2018. Participants: 977. Media partner: NRK. Report from NRK here.

 

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