Andrew Cornwell France

Macron benefits from Bayrou endorsement in rolling polls

Veteran centrist leader Francois Bayrou has kept France waiting over his Presidential intentions, but there was little surprise last Wednesday when he announced he would not run and would instead endorse independent Emmanuel Macron. Bayrou had been scoring just 4 to 6 per cent in the polls since the start of the year, while Macron’s En Marche! movement has surged from strength to strength.

Equally anticipated was a blip upward in the polls for Macron as he picked up Bayrou supporters. By Friday, the two daily rolling polls had incorporated fieldwork mainly carried out since Bayrou’s decision: Ifop/Fiducial placed Macron at a new high of 23.5 per cent, compared to 19 per cent on Tuesday 21st, the day before the announcement. Meanwhile Opinionway’s Présitrack put him up two points at 23 per cent compared to their Tuesday survey.

Less commented on was the fact that conservative contender Francois Fillon has also inched back above 20 per cent: in Friday’s Ifop/Fiducial poll he was at 20.5 per cent, up from 19 in the Tuesday survey. With Opinionway he started the week on 20 per cent and finished on 21 per cent, a remarkably resilient performance. Today’s announcement of further judge-led investigations into his family’s employment on parliamentary business keeps him in the headlines for the wrong reasons, but also offers the prospect of deferring any charges and/or court appearences until after election day.

As expected the Bayrou endorsement had no bearing on the poll positions of Marine Le Pen, Benoit Hamon or Jean-Luc Mélenchon, none of them offering attractive political shelter for homeless MoDem loyalists.

Hamon reached new lows in the rolling polls of 13 per cent with Opinionway on Thursday and Ifop/Fiducial on Friday. He is on the cusp of implementing a deal with EELV candidate Yannick Jadot, but the Green candidate’s withdrawal would at best boost the Socialist vote by 2 percentage points. The real sticking point remains the difficulty of forming a broad-left alliance with Mélenchon which would give this quarter of the electorate its only chance of putting a candidate into the second round.

 

IFOP/FIDUCIAL
First round voting intentions, per cent, Friday 24 Feb (change on 21 Feb poll in brackets):

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 26.0 (nc)
  • Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 20.5 (+1.5)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 23.5 (+4.5)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 13.0 (-1)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 11.0 (-0.5)
  • Yannick Jadot (EELV) 2.0 (+0.5)
  • Others 3.5 (nc)

Second round voting intentions: Macron 61.5 (+0.5), Le Pen 38.5 (-0.5)

Fieldwork: 21.02-24.02.2017. Released: 24.02.2017. Respondents: 1417. Methodology: Online ‘rolling’ poll with 500 new responses added daily. Media partners: iTélé, Paris Match, Sud Radio.

 

OPINIONWAY
First round voting intentions, per cent, Friday 24 Feb (change on 21 Feb poll in brackets):

  • Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 26.0 (nc)
  • Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 21.0 (nc)
  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 23.0 (+2)
  • Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 13.0 (-2)
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 11.0 (nc)
  • Yannick Jadot (EELV) 2.0 (+1)
  • Others 4.0 (-1)

Second round voting intentions: Macron 61.0 (+3), Le Pen 39.0 (-3)

Fieldwork: 21.02-23.02.2017. Released: 24.02.2017. Respondents: 1431. Methodology: Online ‘rolling’ poll with 500 new responses added daily. Media partners: Les Echos, Radio Classique, ORPI.

 

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