Following yesterday’s BVA poll showing him level with Les Républicains’ Francois Fillon, left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) has moved into third place tonight in Kantar Sofres Onepoint’s poll. He heads Fillon by 18 to 17 per cent on first round Presidential voting intentions in this survey, carried out for Le Figaro, LCI and RTL. Mélenchon has soared six points in the three weeks since the last Kantar poll was carried out, while Fillon is flat.
Both Marine Le Pen (Front National) and Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) fall back two points, to remain tied on 24 per cent each. Socialist Party man Benoit Hamon loses three points to 9 per cent.
Among the remaining six candidates, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout La France) is up only a fraction to 3.5 per cent, now followed by Philippe Poutou (NPA) at 2.5 per cent.
These findings are entirely consistent with BVA’s work, with interviews being carried over an identical timeframe following the second televised debate on Tuesday 4 April. They provide further confirmation that France is now in a four-way contest.
Given this, attention will increasingly focus on how firm each candidate’s support base is. Interestingly the total number of voters claiming they are ‘certain of their choice’ has only risen by 2 points in three weeks with Kantar, from 58 to 60 per cent.
As in other polls, Le Pen and Fillon enjoy the most committed support (76 and 75 per cent ‘certainty’ respectively). However Mélenchon (61 per cent, up four) and Macron (55 per cent, also up four), are improving rapidly. Only 48 per cent of Benoit Hamon’s voters are certain to support him – which points to potential for Mélenchon gain further ground.
KANTAR SOFRES 9 April
First round voting intentions, per cent
(comparison to 19 March poll in brackets)
Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) 24.0 (-2.0)
Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) 24.0 (-2.0)
Francois Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) 17.0 (nc)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insoumise) 18.0 (+6.0)
Benoit Hamon (Parti Socialiste, PS) 9.0 (-3.0)
Others (6 candidates combined) 8.0 (+1.0)
Second round scenarios:
Macron 61.0 vs. Le Pen 39.0
Macron 66.0 vs. Fillon 34.0
Fillon 55.0 vs. Le Pen 45.0
Mélenchon 57.0 vs. Le Pen 43.0
Fieldwork: 05.04-07.04.2017. Participants: 1515. Methodology: Online poll.
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