Neck and neck in twin UK polls

The late August Monday public holiday traditionally marks the end of summer in the UK and, after a very light period for opinion polling, the pollsters are straight back into action today with twin surveys issued by YouGov and ICM.

Both show that the minority ruling Conservatives and the opposition Labour Party are running neck and neck, tied on 42 per cent with ICM and within one point of each with YouGov. There is practically no change for the struggling smaller parties as the big two continue to hoover up 83-84 per cent voting intentions between them. Notably a change of leadership for the third-placed Liberal Democrats has yet to help them make a real polling impact.

Perhaps the most interesting point about the figures is made by YouGov in a commentary, which recalls that Labour led by some eight points in its first survey immediately after the shock June General Election results. Labour’s gentle summer decline will hardly worry the party, however, as the Conservatives continue to be deeply on the defensive in the face of difficult Brexit negotiations and leadership doubts.

On the latter question, Prime Minister Theresa May continues to lead Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn in YouGov’s ‘best Prime Minister’ rankings. However her advantage is narrow at 37 to 33 per cent, and a far cry from her enormous pre-election leads. A quite high 31 per cent of respondents are unsure whom to choose.


Voting intentions, per cent
(change on 17 August in brackets):

Labour Party (Lab) 42 (-2)
Conservative Party (Con) 41 (nc)
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 8 (+1)
Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru (SNP/PC) 4 (+1)
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 4 (+1)
Green Party 1 (-1)
Others 0 (nc)

Fieldwork: 21.08-22.08.2017. Release date: 29.08.2017. Participants: 1664. Method: Online poll. Media partner: The Times. Full tables here.


Voting intentions, per cent
(change on 18 July in brackets):

Labour Party (Lab) 42 (-1)
Conservative Party (Con) 42 (nc)
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 7 (nc)
Green Party 3 (+1)
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 3 (nc)
Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru (SNP/PC) 2 (-2)
Others 1 (+1)

Fieldwork: 25.08-28.08.2017. Release date: 29.08.2017. Participants: 1972. Method: Online poll. Media partner: The Guardian. Full data here.



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