New Dutch coalition lacks polling majority

The first opinion poll since the Netherlands’ new cabinet was sworn in last Thursday, from GfK for Een Vandaag, shows little change on the comparable late September survey – but underlines how the new governing parties have lost support during seven months of marathon coalition talks. Of the four parties in the 12-strong cabinet of Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s third government, three have given up considerable ground in public opinion since the March General Election.

Rutte’s own centre-right VVD is projected at 30 seats, its lowest in the monthly Een Vandaag surveys since the election. Senior partners the social liberals of D66 and the Christian Democrat CDA are down two and three ‘virtual seats’ respectively. Only the smallest of the four, the Christian Union (CU) has held its own in this polling series.

On these figures, the new government would lack a majority in the 150-strong Tweede Kamer, or lower house of parliament. Together they are projected at 69 seats compared to the 76 actually held.

As in recent polls from other agencies, it is the new populist party FvD (‘Forum for Democracy’) that is the big winner, advancing to a projected 8 seats compared to the two that it actually won in March. The troubled Labour Party (PvdA), sees some minor recovery from its crushing election defeat, picking up 2 virtual seats in this poll compared to September – and three ahead of its historic low at the election.


EEN VANDAAG / GfK  31 October
Voting intentions, per cent, Tweede Kamer
(change on March 2017 election)

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD, Centre right) 20.0 (-1.3)
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV, Freedom Party) 14.0 (+0.9)
Christen-Democratisch Appel (CDA, Christian Democrats) 11.0 (-1.4)
Democraten 66 (D66, Social liberals) 11.0 (-1.2)
GroenLinks (GL, Green Left) 9.0 (-0.1)
Socialistische Partij (SP, Socialist Party) 8.0 (-1.1)
Partij van der Arbeid (PvdA, Labour Party) 8.0 (+2.3)
Forum voor Democratie (FvD, right-wing populist) 5.0 (+3.2)
ChristenUnie (CU, Christian Union) 4.0 (-0.6)
Partij voor de Dieren (PvdD, Animal welfare party) 4.0 (+0.8)
50Plus (Pensioners’ party) 3.0 (-0.1)
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (SGP, Christian party) 2.0 (-0.1)
Denk (‘Think’, Ethnic minority party) 1.0 (-1.1)


Seat projection for Tweede Kamer
(change on March 2017 election)

VVD  30 (-3)
PVV  21 (+1)
D66  17 (-2)
CDA  16 (-3)
GL  13 (-1)
SP  12 (-2)
PvdA  12 (+3)
FvD  8 (+6)
CU  6 (+1)
PvdD  6 (+1)
50Plus  4 (nc)
SGP  3 (nc)
Denk  2 (-1)
Other  0 (nc)

Total 150 seats

Fieldwork: 27.10-30.10.2017. Published: 31.10.2017. Participants: 2022. Methodology: Online poll. Full report on the Een Vandaag website here.


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