New polling low for Finland’s ruling Centre

There is further opinion poll gloom for Finnish Prime Minister Juha Sipila today as his Centre Party (KESK) falls to a new low point in this parliamentary term in a Kantar TNS survey for the Helsingin Sanomat. With just 15.1 per cent of voting intentions, KESK stands six points below its actual score in the April 2015 General Election. This is also its worst total with Kantar since December 2011. The difficulties faced by the coalition government in implementing far-reaching health service and local government reforms are clearly taking their toll on the Centre. Its main coalition partner, the centre-right National Coalition Party (KOK), continues to be stable with support above 20 per cent.

As for the third leg of the government, the Blue Reform (SIN) group of MPs which broke away from the populist Finns Party (PS) in June, there is still little sign that it is winning any public support outside parliament. Blue Reform is credited with just 1.6 per cent in this poll. The remaining Finns Party members, in opposition since the division, will take some comfort from that failure, but their own score is not recovering in this poll.

For the rest of the opposition, a small uptick for the Social Democrats (SDP) is still not enough to return them to the 20-21 per cent range achieved with Kantar earlier this year. And the Green League (VIHR) appears to have reached a plateau after making excellent progress up to August.


KANTAR TNS 19 November
Voting intentions, per cent
(change on October poll)

National Coalition Party – KOK 21.4 (-0.5)
Social Democratic Party – SDP 19.0 (+0.9)
Green League – VIHR 15.7 (-0.4)
Centre Party – KESK 15.1 (-0.3)
Left Alliance – VAS 8.8 (+0.6)
Finns Party – PS 8.7 (-0.6)
Swedish People’s Party – RKP 4.4 (nc)
Christian Democrats – KD 3.3 (nc)
Blue Reform – SIN 1.6 (nc)
Others 2.0 (+0.3)

Fieldwork: 16.10-13.11.2017. Published: 20.11.2017. Participants: 2434. Methodology: Telephone poll. Media partner: Helsingin Sanomat. Full report here.


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