Austria’s conservative OVP continues to sail serenely towards victory on 15 October, when the country will elect a new Nationalrat. Under Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, the party has polled a consistent 32 to 34 per cent across ten surveys during September, leaving its SPO (social democrat) and FPO (populist right) rivals battling for second place between six and ten points adrift.
Today’s major poll for Austrian TV and the Heute newspaper, a rare joint effort from agencies Unique Research and Peter Hajek confirms the position. It puts the OVP on 34 per cent ahead of the SPO on 27 and the FPO on 25. This is a high quality poll with a very large sample size by Austrian standards of 1500, and a ‘margin of error’ of +/-2.3 per cent compared to other polls that often top +/-4 per cent.
An interesting feature of this poll is that all three smaller forces – NEOS, the Greens and the independent Peter Pilz list – are all placed on 4 per cent of voting intentions, exactly the threshold for entry into parliament. A new Nationalrat without any of them present is a real possibility, as the Greens have continued to slide in September while their former star Pilz has not achieved lift-off.
UNIQUE RESEARCH/PETER HAJEK
Voting intentions, Nationalrat, per cent
(change on 18 August poll in brackets):
OVP (People’s Party) 34 (+2)
SPO (Social Democrats) 27 (nc)
FPO (Freedom Party) 25 (+1)
Neos (New Austria) 4 (-2)
Gruene (Greens) 4 (-1)
‘Liste Pilz’ 4 (nc)
Others 2 (nc)
Fieldwork: 21.09-28.09.2017. Release date. 29.09.2017. Participants: 1500. Methodology: Mixed telephone and online poll. Media partners: ATV, Heute. August poll used for comparison carried out by Hajek only. Full report here.
A second poll out today by Christina Matzka for News gives a similar 1-2-3, but with slightly lower OVP and SPO scores. The three smaller parties are in broadly similar difficulties. It should be noted that interviews for this poll were finalised a week ago, in contrast to the more up-to-date research for ATV and Heute.
CHRISTINA MATZKA
Voting intentions, Nationalrat, per cent
(change on 19 July poll in brackets):
OVP (People’s Party) 32 (nc)
SPO (Social Democrats) 26 (nc)
FPO (Freedom Party) 25 (-2)
Neos (New Austria) 5 (nc)
‘Liste Pilz’ 5 (n/a)
Gruene (Greens) 4 (-2)
Others 3 (-1)
Fieldwork: 15.09-22.09.2017. Release date. 29.09.2017. Participants: 800. Methodology: Mixed telephone and online poll. Media partner: News. Report here.
Austria’s most regular pollster, Research Affairs, which has been conducting weekly surveys during the election campaign, reported yesterday. It too gives the OVP a solid advantage with a score that has hardly shifted during the last three months. The FPO remains in second place with Research Affairs, but overall there are practically no real movements in voting intentions.
RESEARCH AFFAIRS
Voting intentions, Nationalrat, per cent
(change on 21 September poll in brackets):
OVP (People’s Party) 33 (nc)
FPO (Freedom Party) 26 (+1)
SPO (Social Democrats) 24 (nc)
Neos (New Austria) 6 (nc)
Gruene (Greens) 5 (-1)
‘Liste Pilz’ 4 (nc)
Others 2 (nc)
Fieldwork: 25.09-27.09.2017. Release date. 28.09.2017. Participants: 500. Methodology: Online poll. Media partner: Oesterriech. More coverage here.
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