Iceland’s Pirate Party continues its spectacular fall from last spring’s heights in this month’s Gallup poll for national broadcaster RUV. The alternative direct democracy movement falls to just 12 per cent, its lowest with Gallup since January 2015, and 2.5 points below its General Election score on 29 October. The heady year between May 2015 and May 2016 when the Pirates polled between 30 and 40 per cent in the throes of the ‘Panama Papers’ scandal seems a distant memory now.
Conversely the largest opposition party, the Left-Green Movement, hits its highest level with Gallup since May 2010 at 24.3 per cent, soaring above its actual election score of 15.9 per cent. (It should be noted that Iceland’s other main pollster, MMR, placed the Left-Greens as high as 27 per cent in February).
A glance at Gallup Iceland’s website illustrates graphically just how violent the recent polling swings have been for both the Pirates and Left-Greens.
A matter of weeks into Iceland’s new coalition administration, which was finally formed on 10 January, the centre-right Independence Party is maintaining a stable score. At 27.6 per cent in voting intentions it is not far short of the 29 per cent score which made it the largest parliamentary party in October. Its junior partners are experiencing very different polling fates: while the social liberals of Bright Future are close to their election score at 6.4 per cent, the new Reform Party is struggling at half its achieved vote on just 5.4 per cent.
Voting intentions, per cent (change on January poll in brackets):
Sjalfstaedisflokkurinn* (Independence Party) 27.6 (-0.4)
Vinstri-Graen (Left Green Movement) 24.3 (+1.5)
Piratar (Pirate Party) 12.0 (-1.4)
Framsoknarflokkurinn (Progressive Party) 10.7 (+0.2)
Samfylkingin (Social Democratic Alliance) 8.3 (+1.0)
Bjort framtid* (Bright Future) 6.4 (-0.8)
Vidreisn* (Reform Party) 5.4 (+0.1)
Others 5.3 (-0.4)
*Denotes governing coalition party.
Fieldwork: 01.02-28.02.2017. Published: 02.03.2017. Participants: 5557. Methodology: Online.
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