The story of 2017 so far in Portuguese polling has been the slow widening of the ruling Socialists’ (PS) lead over the opposition Social Democrats (PSD). The monthly gains have been small in themselves, but as the chart below shows, they have contributed to an extension of the advantage from seven to twelve points in Eurosondagem’s surveys for Expresso.
The August edition, published today, adds another 0.9 points to the gap as the government of Antonio Costa continues to take the credit for impressive economic figures – helped on by the Prime Minister’s commanding lead in the personal ratings.
A similar trend can be in the monthly polls from the nation’s other pollster, Aximage: its reported gap between the two main parties has widened from about 16 points in January to 21 in July. (The August Aximage poll is still to come).
Movements among the three smaller parties – Left Bloc (BE), Greens-Communists (CDU) and Christian Democrats (CDS/PP) – have not really shown any pronounced direction during the year so far. It is worth noting that BE’s 8.4 per cent score today is its lowest with Eurosondagem in 2017; then again, the high was just 9.5 per cent.
Voting intentions, per cent
(change on 7 July poll)
Socialist Party * (PS) 40.8 (+0.4)
Social Democratic Party (PSD) 28.1 (-0.5)
Left Bloc * (BE) 8.4 (-0.1)
Communist-Green Coalition * (CDU) 7.6 (-0.2)
Christian Democrats/People’s Party (CDS/PP) 6.9 (+0.7)
People-Animals-Nature (PAN) 1.1 (-0.2)
Others / “blank” vote 7.1 (-0.1)
* Denotes current coalition government member
Fieldwork: 27.07-02.08.2017. Released: 04.08.2017. Participants: 1011. Methodology: Telephone poll. Media partner: Expresso.
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