Today’s Forsa opinion poll for Stern magazine and RTL confirms at Federal level the lesson of the Saarland regional election: the great SPD surge inspired by new leader Martin Schulz is well and truly over. Angel Merkel’s CDU/CSU has moved up to 36 per cent of Bundestag voting intentions, opening a seven-point gap to their SPD coalition partners, who fall three points to 29 per cent compared to last week’s Forsa survey.
The last time the SPD stood below 30 per cent in this weekly series was on 1 February. So far Forsa is the only pollster to show the SPD back below 30 per cent and it remains to be seen if this is a one-off finding. Yesterday’s INSA poll, for example, continues to show the two main parties within half a point of each other. For the moment it can be noted that the CDU is now above its February low points with seven of Germany’s eight main pollsters.
Among other parties the populist AfD and left-wing Die Linke both make one-point recoveries compared to last week’s Forsa poll. The liberal FDP, on the other hand, is back down at 5 per cent, wobbling just above the threshold to gain Federal parliamentary seats.
In the INSA survey, the most notable move is the loss of two points for the AfD. It now polls in single figures with six of the eight research organisations.
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent (change on 29 March in brackets):
Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 36.0 (+2.0)
Social Democrats (SPD) 29.0 (-3.0)
Left (Die Linke) 9.0 (+1.0)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 8.0 (+1.0)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 7.0 (nc)
Free Democrats (FDP) 5.0 (-1.0)
Others 6.0 (nc)
Fieldwork: 27.03-31.03.2017. Released: 04.04.2017. Participants: 2504. Method: Telephone poll.
Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent (change on 27 March in brackets):
Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 32 (nc)
Social Democrats (SPD) 32.5 (+0.5)
Left (Die Linke) 9.0 (+0.5)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 9.0 (-2.0)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 6.5 (nc)
Free Democrats (FDP) 6.5 (+0.5)
Others 4.5 (+0.5)
Fieldwork: 31.03-03.04.2017. Released: 03.04.2017. Participants: 2033. Method: Online poll. Media partner: Bild newspaper.
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