Sinn Fein at 2018 polling low as Ireland’s big two parties concentrate support

Ireland’s third biggest party, nationalist Sinn Fein, has slipped to its lowest voting intention score of 2018 with any pollster in this weekend’s Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post – it is down to just 13 per cent. Sinn Fein’s polling is probably the most volatile of all the Republic’s parties, ranging from 13 to 24 per cent so far this year.

Meanwhile the traditional ‘big two’ of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail both see a slight improvement in their scores compared to October’s Red C poll. Their combined vote share of 61 per cent is at is highest level across all pollsters since early May. Despite the challenges of minority government, Leo Varadkar’s ruling Fine Gael has maintained fairly consistent support at between 31 and 34 per cent this autumn. The main opposition Fianna Fail is also little changed, scoring 27 per cent in four of the last six national polls, and 25 per cent in the other two.

Among the smaller parties there are no significant movements in Red C’s survey.

With Brexit negotiations high on the news agenda in Ireland as in the United Kingdom, Red C asked a number of questions on the issue. Economic concerns are to the fore with 82 per cent of respondents worried that Brexit will have a negative impact on the Irish economy, some 46 per cent ‘already being more cautious about spending’, and 41 per cent concerned about their job security being affected by Brexit.


RED C 25 November
First preference voting intentions, per cent
(change on 21 October poll in brackets):

Fine Gael 34 (+1)
Fianna Fail 27 (+2)
Sinn Fein 13 (-2)
Labour 6 (+1)
Independent Alliance 5 (+1)
Greens 3 (-1)
Social Democrats 2 (nc)
Renua 0 (nc)
Solidarity-PBP 0 (nc)
Independents 10 (-2)

Fieldwork: 15.11-22.11.2018. Published: 25.11.2018. Participants: 1000. Methodology: Telephone poll, weighted by past voting and likelihood to vote. Media partner: Sunday Business Post. Full details from Red C here.