‘Still no gamechangers’ in tight Dutch race

Today’s fortnightly poll from I & O Research bears the mixed Dutch-English headline ‘Nog geen gamechangers’ (‘still no gamechangers’). No significant breakthroughs are reported and in percentage terms voting intention scores have shifted only within the margin of error for nearly all the parties.

Translating that into a lower house seat projection, the PVV and VVD are essentially still neck and neck, both having moved up slightly. In five-strong pack of parties projected to take seats in the teens, most ‘virtual seat’ movements are small. Nonetheless two interesting benchmarks are set:

  • Groen Links, the Green Left, reaches its highest score to date with any pollster at a projected 20 seats.
  • 50Plus, the pensioners’ party, has hit its lowest score with any pollster at just 4 seats, down three with I & O, confirming its slide in other surveys in the past week.

In common with other pollsters, I & O’s commentary concludes – on the basis of a number of supplementary questions – that the weekend TV debate between some party leaders has had little impact on the campaign. Only 18 per cent of I & O’s respondents watched the RTL programme, which Mark Rutte (VVD) and Geert Wilders (PVV) boycotted.

 

Neck and neck in Een Vaandag poll

In yesterday afternoon’s survey from GfK for news programme Een Vaandag a tie is shown for the first time between the two leading parties: both VVD and PVV are projected to gain just 22 seats each. That is a small retreat for the VVD (down 1) but a bigger setback for the PVV (down 3) compared to Een Vaandag’s previous survey on 14 February.

The Socialist Party can be happy with a three-point advance, while 50Plus see a dramatic slide, losing half of their ‘virtual’ seats.

 

I & O RESEARCH
Seat projections for Tweede Kamer (change on 20 Feb poll in brackets):

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV, Freedom Party) 22 (+2)
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD, Centre right) 25 (+1)
Democraten 66 (D66, Social liberals) 17 (-3)
Christen-Democratisch Appel (CDA, Christian Democrats) 15 (-1)
GroenLinks (GL, Green Left) 20 (+1)
Socialistische Partij (SP, Socialist Party) 12 (+1)
Partij van der Arbeid (PvdA, Labour Party) 14 (nc)
50Plus (Pensioners’ party) 4 (-3)
ChristenUnie (CU, Christian Union) 8 (nc)
Others (SGP, PvdD, DENK, VNL, FvD) 13 (+2)

Fieldwork: 24.02-28.02.2017. Released: 01.03.2017. Participants: 3043. Methodology: Overwhelmingly online, some face-to-face interviews. Seat projection based on 1991 responses from those ‘certain’ to vote.

 

EEN VAANDAG / GfK
Seat projections for Tweede Kamer (change on 14 Feb poll in brackets):

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV, Freedom Party) 22 (-4)
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD, Centre right) 22 (-3)
Democraten 66 (D66, Social liberals) 17 (+1)
Christen-Democratisch Appel (CDA, Christian Democrats) 19 (+1)
GroenLinks (GL, Green Left) 15 (nc)
Socialistische Partij (SP, Socialist Party) 16 (+3)
Partij van der Arbeid (PvdA, Labour Party) 12 (nc)
50Plus (Pensioners’ party) 5 (-5)
ChristenUnie (CU, Christian Union) 7 (+1)
Others (SGP, PvdD, DENK, VNL, FvD) 15 (+4)

Fieldwork: 27.02-28.02.2017. Released: 28.02.2017. Participants: 2982. Methodology: Online poll, weighted to account for voting in 2012 election.

Note: Due to the highly proportional nature of the Dutch electoral system, pollsters generally express results in terms of seat projections rather than in percentages.

 

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