Today’s score of 28.1 per cent of voting intentions with Respons Analyse is the Norwegian Labour Party’s lowest result in 62 national polls so far in 2017. It comes exactly one month before the election of a new Storting on 11 September and raises significant doubts about the AP opposition’s ability to seize power from the current four-party centre-right coalition.
All four elements of that coalition are still polling slightly below their 2013 election results, but for the Conservatives (Hoyre), the Progress Party (FRP) and the Christian People’s Party (KRF), the averages are moving slowly in the right direction. Only the Liberals of Venstre are going backwards – and indeed struggling to reach the 4 per cent threshold for the award of top-up seats in parliament, which can be critical for smaller parties.
It is the weakness of Venstre which most contributes to a theoretical loss of majority for the current coalition in Respons Analyse’s seat projection: the party would shrink from 9 to 2 places in parliament on today’s opinion preferences. However the beneficiary is not Labour, which is projected to lose three seats as it falls below the 30.8 per cent obtained in the 2013 General Election. Instead the Centre Party (SP) would emerge as a bigger force, with 19 seats compared to 10 currently.
Labour’s weakness appears to be benefitting the Greens (MDG) and the Left Liberals (SV) who both enjoy another good poll today after several improved recent scores.
While the momentum is probably with the conservative camp with a month of the campaign remaining, Norway’s election appears finely balanced both within each of the centre-right and centre-left spheres, and between the two of them.
RESPONS ANALYSE 11 August
Storting voting intentions, per cent
(change on 16 June in brackets)
Labour Party (AP) 28.1 (-3.6)
Conservatives (Hoyre) * 24.8 (+0.7)
Progress Party (FRP) * 13.6 (-0.4)
Centre Party (SP) 10.1 (+0.3)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 6.4 (+1.6)
Christian People’s Party (KRF) * 5.1 (+0.4)
Greens (MDG) 3.7 (+0.6)
Liberals (Venstre) * 3.6 (+0.1)
Red Party (Rodt) 2.7 (+0.4)
Others 1.9 (-0.1)
(current held seats in brackets)
Labour Party (AP) 52 (55)
Conservatives (Hoyre) * 45 (48)
Progress Party (FRP) * 25 (29)
Centre Party (SP) 19 (10)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 12 (7)
Christian People’s Party (KRF) * 9 (10)
Greens (MDG) 3 (1)
Liberals (Venstre) * 2 (9)
Red Party (Rodt) 2 (0)
Others 0 (0)
Total seats 169
*denotes member of ruling coalition government
Fieldwork: 08.08-10.08.2017. Published: 11.08.2017. Participants: 1001. Media partners: Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende, Adresseavisen. Report from Aftenposten here.
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