Worst poll for German Christian Democrats for eleven years

Germany’s coalition negotiations, which are progressing slowly, may be starting to take their toll on support for Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU). In last night’s twice monthly ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll from Infratest dimap, the CDU sinks to 30 per cent, its worst score with this pollster for eleven years. That figure is almost three percentage points below its Federal election result on 24 September and the first time the CDU has hit 30 per cent in any of the 25 polls from various agencies since that date.

Perhaps even more significantly, the slow process of talks, accompanied by brinkmanship, numerous leaks and personal attacks between the four parties involved, is not going down well with the German public. The Infratest dimap research shows that support for the planned ‘Jamaica’ coalition of CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens has fallen to 45 per cent, down by 12 points in a month. Green Party supporters seem to be losing faith in the concept most rapidly, with 55 per cent of them in favour, down a huge 21 points since mid-October. While 68 per cent overall believe ‘Jamaica’ will eventually happen, this figure is down by 7 points; 30 per cent now feel that no agreement will be reached.

Another shift in opinion lies in attitudes to fresh elections should the negotiations fail. Exactly three-quarters now favour this – up by 10 percentage points since the 12 October polling. Just 20 per cent would back a minority CDU/CSU government, and supporters of all parties are ready for new elections by large majorities.

In term of personality ratings, it appears to be the Christian Democrat politicians who are suffering from the coalition morass. Angela Merkel’s score falls 6 points to 57 per cent satisfied, while CSU leader Horst Seehofer, under some pressure in Bavaria to resign, falls to just 28 per cent satisfied. The country’s most popular figure remains former Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, unchanged at 69 per cent satisfied following his move to become President of the Bundestag. The AfD’s controversial parliamentary leader Alexander Gauland props up the table at 13 per cent, although this is a five point improvement on last month.


Voting intentions, Bundestag, per cent
(change on 12 October in brackets):

Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 30.0 (-2.0)
Social Democrats (SPD) 21.0 (+1.0)
Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) 13.0 (+2.0)
Free Democrats (FDP) 12.0 (+1.0)
Greens (Die Gruenen) 11.0 (+1.0)
Left (Die Linke) 9.0 (-1.0)
Others 4.0 (-2.0)

Fieldwork: 06.11-08.11.2017. Released: 09.11.2017. Participants: 1505. Method: Telephone poll. Media partner: ARD. Full presentation on the Infratest dimap website here.


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